Just an absolutely fantastic note from Howard Marks. To sum it up:
- Everyone knows prospective returns are dangerously low, but NOW is not the time to de-risk
All I will add is that the state of the US economy is the biggest factor in the “timing” of Marks’ call that we are in the 8th inning of this “cycle” (whatever that is).
Per the great Cullen Roche of The Pragmatic Capitalist, the equity market has never experienced a large-scale bear market outside of recessionary US economic conditions, as measured by Jobless Claims rising by 20% YOY. At present, we are nowhere close.
So keep dancing.